The closing stages of the 2022/23 campaign shone a bright spotlight on Arsenal's dependency on William Saliba.
After missing the final third of the campaign through injury, Arsenal swiftly surrendered their stranglehold on the Premier League title race with Manchester City. A flurry of eventful draws and hefty defeats saw the Gunners pass up the opportunity to dethrone Pep Guardiola's side.
Arsenal have improved dramatically since then but they still remain reliant on their effortless French centre-half. Having forged an excellent partnership with Gabriel, the duo helped the north London outfit boast the most stubborn defence in the Premier League last term.
But do the numbers reflect public perception? Here's how Arsenal get on without their chief defensive dynamo.
How does Arsenal's win rate compare with and without William Saliba?
Given Saliba's status as one of the world's best central defenders, it's hardly surprising that Arsenal suffer when he's unavailable. However, it is concerning how significantly their entire team is impacted by his absence.
Since the start of the 2022/23 season, Arsenal have played 11 matches in the Premier League without Saliba and have a win rate of just 45.5% in said fixtures. More often than not, they fail to secure three points without the 23-year-old.
By contrast, Arsenal win 74% of Premier League matches when Saliba is playing. They win approximately three in every four matches when he features, with a sample size of 73 games in total since his debut on 5 August 2023.
Arsenal's defensive record is particularly worrying without Saliba. They usually concede 0.8 times per match and allow an expected goal against total of the same number when he's in the team, but that jumps up to 1.6 goals conceded and 1.4 expected goals against when he's sidelined. In essence, they're half as good defensively when Saliba is missing.
A lack of alternatives certainly doesn't help. While Riccardo Calafiori's summer arrival should ease the burden on Saliba, Gabriel has struggled in previous seasons when lining up alongside Rob Holding and Jakub Kiwior. The latter is still at the club but has failed to impress during his time in north London.
Arsenal's record with and without William Saliba in the Premier League since 2022/23
With William Saliba | Metric | Without William Saliba |
|---|---|---|
73 | Games | 11 |
74% | Win percentage | 45.5% |
2.4 | Points per game | 1.6 |
0.8 | Goal against per game | 1.6 |
0.8 | xG against per game | 1.4 |
Stats via Opta. Correct as of 26 October 2024.
The Premier League games Arsenal have lost without William Saliba
Of the 11 Premier League matches Saliba has missed since the start of 2022/23, Arsenal have lost three. They all came during the run-in at the end of his first full season as the Gunners capitulated in his absence.
In the final six games of the campaign, Arsenal lost 4-1 to title rivals Man City - a game that put the Cityzens in pole position for the crown - and were hammered 3-0 at home to Brighton & Hove Albion. Both those defeats came before the 1-0 away loss at Nottingham Forest that officially handed the Premier League title to Guardiola's men on the penultimate weekend.
Arsenal kept just two clean sheets in the 11 matches Saliba missed at the end of 2022/23, conceding 18 times in total. They had let in just 25 goals in the 27 league matches Saliba had featured in prior to his injury.
Arsenal also surrendered two-goal leads away at Liverpool and West Ham United, while stumbling to a 3-3 draw at home to lowly Southampton in which they needed two late goals to salvage a disappointing point.
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