Matchday 22 of the Premier League season looks like it could be a crucial one.
Leaders Liverpool looked destined to drop points away at Brentford before a stoppage-time double from the under-fire Darwin Nunez inspired a huge 2-0 win, which only became more significant when Arsenal let a two-goal lead of their own disappear against Aston Villa later in the day.
There's still a long way to go, but here's how the stats whizzes over at Opta see the Premier League title race unfolding after the latest round of drama.
Supercomputer predicts 2024/25 Premier League title winner
Arsenal's draw means Liverpool now sit six points ahead at the top of the standings, with the extra bonus of having a game in hand which they will play away at Everton next month.
There's no doubt about it, that's a significant advantage at this point in the season.
That is reflected in the stats, with Opta giving Liverpool a whopping 91.5% of handing Arne Slot the Premier League trophy in his first season at Anfield. No team has a greater chance of finishing in any single position than Liverpool do in first.
Mikel Arteta knows there is a gulf to close if Arsenal are to finally win the title this year. The stats are definitely not on his side, with the Gunners given odds of just 8.2% of wrestling the title away from Liverpool.
It's not a two-horse race, however. Eight-placed Manchester City are still given a 0.2% chance of completing the most stunning title turnaround in history, while the high-flying Nottingham Forest sit at 0.1%.
Newcastle United and Chelsea, who sit fourth and fifth respectively, are not given any hope of winning the big one.
Rank | Club | Probability of winning the title |
|---|---|---|
1. | Liverpool | 91.5% |
2. | Arsenal | 8.2% |
3. | Manchester City | 0.2% |
4. | Nottingham Forest | 0.1% |
READ THE LATEST PREMIER LEAGUE NEWS, RUMOURS & GOSSIP
feed
