Ogden vs. Marcotti: How much work does Ruben Amorim still need to do at Man United?

The winter transfer window closed on Monday and Manchester United largely underwhelmed in the market thanks to financial constraints and the difficulty in recruiting midseason. Out went Marcus Rashford and Antony, two expensive and unwanted veteran players; in came a largely unknown defender from Serie A (Patrick Dorgu) and a youth player (Ayden Heaven) from Arsenal's academy.

The biggest issue? They didn't bring in a centerforward to ease the pressure up front and keep them from falling even further behind.

So what does the remainder of the 2024-25 campaign look like from here under Ruben Amorim? Does he have the players he needs to make his tactics and system work? And how should he tackle the league vs. cups debate, with United still alive in the FA Cup and Europa League while being stuck in the bottom half of the Premier League table?

Gab Marcotti and Mark Ogden debate the state of Man United.

Overall, given the situation, how content should Man United fans be with the January transfer window?

OGDEN: I think they should be alarmed, but they won't be surprised. The club has been consistently delivering the message that finances are tight, there is virtually no wriggle room with Profit & Sustainability Rules (PSR) and ultimately, players need to leave in order for the club to raise funds and reduce the wage bill.

Their January business was sensible from a financial perspective -- United announced annual losses of �113m ($TKm) last September -- but Ruben Amorim's squad is desperately short of attacking quality and the failure to invest in a forward, even on a six-month loan, could cost them their one realistic chance of qualifying for the Champions League through winning the Europa League.

I haven't heard a single dissenting voice over the decision to offload Marcus Rashford and Antony on loan to Aston Villa and Real Betis respectively, but to allow them to leave without at least one replacement is really risky because it places even greater pressure on Rasmus Hojlund and Joshua Zirkzee to score the goals they've failed to deliver all season.

The addition of Patrick Dorgu gives Amorim another option at wing-back, but time will tell if he is the solution. Right now, United are like a sinking ship trying to limp back to port for essential repairs.

MARCOTTI: I'm not quite as negative as Mark here. The financial restrictions are what they are, of course, and I assume most United fans accept that. What you don't want in these situations is to make rash decisions, especially on young players, and I think that's part of the reason why they opted against bringing in another striker now.

Hojlund and Zirkzee may not be scoring much, but they are youngsters who represent a huge investment for the club. Bringing in another forward "to score goals" on loan risks limiting their playing time and their development. If Amorim ultimately decides to move them on, it becomes harder to do so without losing money.

I think it's pretty obvious that this is what Amorim is trying to do. Even Tyrell Malacia, who moved to PSV on loan at the end of the window, made no fewer than nine appearances for Amorim. He didn't just write him off, and that has to be the mindset.

Shifting Rashford to Aston Villa on that sort of deal was a solid move: There's no point having a guy that won't contribute, and getting Villa to pay a significant chunk of his wages represents a significant savings. However, the fee agreed to make the deal permanent is pretty irrelevant. It's not as if Monchi says "Hey Omar, I know we agreed �40m, but how about we give you �30m instead?" The club will then say no and take him back. Those bridges are evidently burned.

(I guess the only scenario might be one where Rashford scores so many goals that Villa make the deal permanent for �40m and then transfer him to Real Madrid or Barcelona or whatever, but let's be real here.)

Dorgu is a piece of clay: it's up to Amorim to mold him. He has tremendous physical skills and is a smart kid, but obviously Old Trafford isn't Lecce. It's not lost on anyone that he fits the profile of what Amorm had with Geovany Quenda at Sporting CP.

How close are Man United to having the players to implement Ruben Amorim's 3-4-2-1 formation and execute it properly?

MARCOTTI: I think they're very close, and I think we're nearing the point where we can judge Amorim's tactics without the alibi of him needing to fit square pegs in round holes.

Dorgu's profile is very similar to Quenda's. The back three -- at least until Lisandro Martnez's injury -- has players with the right characteristics in the right positions. Could they use a guy who can carry the ball out of the back, like Gonalo Inacio did at Sporting? Sure, but we're getting there.

The midfield remains a question, since it's not clear Kobbie Mainoo is the right partner for Manuel Ugarte in this system, but the wide areas are OK and there are options at the No.10 position. Centerforward remains an issue, sure.

Note here that I'm talking about profile and characteristics, not quality. Of course, you could get a better version of Ugarte, Mathijs De Ligt, Andr Onana and so on, and United would be better. But the question is whether these are players who fit his system and I think that, with some exceptions, they do.

What's been disappointing so far, I think, has been United's performances against poor teams when they need to take the game to the opposition. Clearly the attacking mechanisms aren't working the way they should, but he's closer now to getting the players to improve that.

OGDEN: I disagree with you on this, Gab. I take your point that in perhaps 8-9 positions, United have a competent option for Amorim's line-up, but we are talking the most basic of options. You could make a case for an upgrade in each of those positions, but if we are talking crisis-mode selections then yes: Amorim can just about get by, apart from his attacking options.

We've seen Amorim's blueprint work away from home against Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal, where United have been well-organised and able to score on the counter-attack, but the system fails when faced with a more defensive opponent, especially at Old Trafford.

So it's a bit of a contradiction. Amorim has been able to implement his plan away from home against better teams, but without the ability to dictate play and play on the front foot, United are dismal and that's why they have been so bad in home games under him.

Is centerforward still the most pressing need, and how confident are you that it can be addressed in the summer?

OGDEN: It's their top problem, but it has been the same for almost a decade. United have made so many mistakes in terms of recruiting a reliable centre-forward and Hojlund and Zirkzee (who isn't a centre-forward, but has had to play the role) are so poor that they would struggle to get in any other Premier League starting line-up.

United haven't signed a striker in his prime since Romelu Lukaku in 2017. He was ditched within two years, despite scoring 42 goals in 96 games. United can only dream of that kind of return from any of their forwards now. Instead, they've papered over the cracks with aging stars (Edinson Cavani, Cristiano Ronaldo) and invested in expensive potential (Hojlund, Zirkzee), but they desperately need an experienced striker. Their remit wouldn't just be scoring the goals, but also helping the younger players develop by taking off some of the pressure.

Can it be addressed in the summer? It needs to be, but I don't know where Unired will be able to find the money to sign a Viktor Gykeres or Victor Osimhen. With four players out of contract (including Christian Eriksen and Victor Lindelf) and the club needing to offload Casemiro, Rashford and Antony on a permanent basis, United will have other areas in need of attention and they only have so much money to spread around -- even less if they miss out on European football.

MARCOTTI: I don't think it's just about having a centerforward, but about having a central striker who fits Amorim's system and does what is required to make it work at its best. Hojlund has 0.16 goals, 0.2 xG and 1.05 shots per 90 minutes this season, with zero assists. Zirkzee has 0.31 goals, 0.40 xG and 1.96 shots per 90 (and one assist).

It's the shot count I find staggering. It doesn't take an analytics genius to figure out you won't score a lot of goals with a centerforward who doesn't shoot much. Look at the shots per 90 minutes by centerforwards playing for United's peers (by budget) clubs: Erling Haaland (3.89) at Man City, Nico Jackson (3.24) at Chelsea, Dominic Solanke (2.59) at Tottenham and Kai Havertz (2.54) at Arsenal. (In case you're wondering, Liverpool has five forwards who average between Darin Nunez's 2.74 to Mo Salah's 3.98.) That tells you United aren't good at getting the ball to Hojlund/Zirkzee in situations where they're comfortable shooting.

Whether the blame lies with the players, the system or both -- and to what degree -- is something the club need to work out. (By the way, Hojlund averaged 2.65 shots per 90 at Atalanta while Zirkzee had 2.79 for Bologna, so it's not a case of either being shy.)

Hojlund just turned 22, and I agree with Mark that Zirkzee is not a natural centerforward for this system. I guess the fact they didn't bring in a forward on loan to take some pressure off Hojlund this winter suggests they want to give him minutes to develop. But come this summer, they need to make a decision. If you're ready to give up on Hojlund, go and splash the cash on a top-shelf central striker.

As for Zirkzee, his future at United -- if he has one -- is as a No.10 or as a solution off the bench.

Should Man United focus on the Europa League and FA Cup rather than trying to claw back in the Premier League table?

Man United are 12 points and, perhaps more importantly, eight places away from the Champions League spots in the 2024-25 Premier League table. They are 11 points away from qualifying for the Europa League. Given how important European football is in terms of revenue (both prize money and commercial) and in terms of attracting talent, are they better off focusing on trying to win the Europa League or FA Cup? (The former would get them a Champions League berth; the latter would put them into the Europa League.) And in doing so, should they use the rest of the Premier League season for development and experimentation?

MARCOTTI: I think so. The Premier League campaign can't be salvaged at this point, so use it to try things out, work on what you want to do and figure out what you have.

Who can offer a viable left-sided centerback solution in Martinez' absence? How can Matthijs De Ligt develop as a passing central defender in this system? Is there an in-house solution to play alongside Ugarte? Can Dorgu give you what you need down the flank? These are questions you could try to answer.

Make it clear what you're doing, take the pressure of results off, try to play your game, and put all your eggs in the Europa League and FA Cup baskets. You won't get relegated, you'll get valuable experience and learn more about yourself and you may win some important (and lucrative) silverware. That's far more important than finishing ninth instead of 13th or whatever.

OGDEN: Absolutely. It might be hard for many United fans to swallow, but the Premier League is now irrelevant apart from the prize money at stake with every position in the table.