Supercomputer predicts 2024/25 Champions League knockout stages

Liverpool manager Arne Slot called the new Champions League format "strange", Manchester City's Pep Guardiola admitted that he struggled to understand its intricacies while Real Madrid president Florentino Perez wrote it off as "absurd".

However, the inaugural league phase was largely considered a success. Between plenty of thrills, spills and just eight 0-0s from 144 matches, several members of the continental elite were denied automatic entry into the round of 16 and have been paired with one another for this month's two-legged play-offs.

As this latest new wrinkle of the competition's revamped format gets underway, Opta have unveiled their supercomputer's predictions for the winner of each play-off and the entire competition.

Supercomputer predicts 2024/25 Champions League knockout play-offs

The headline tie from the inaugural knockout play-off rounds is undoubtedly Manchester City's clash with Real Madrid. The two continental giants have faced off four times in the last five Champions League knockout stages, with both sides advancing to the next round on two occasions.

Carlo Ancelotti was fretful over the prospect of coming up against City - "We don't like playing against them," he sighed - but Madrid are ranked as narrow favourites to progress according to Opta, boasting a 53.1% chance of reaching the round of 16. Guardiola could have few complaints with that prediction, given his own verdict shortly before the draw was made: "They are better than us right now."

While that play-off is deemed to be the closest one to call, Paris Saint-Germain are ranked as the heaviest favourites in their all-French tie with Brest. The capital side have already beaten their domestic rivals twice in Ligue 1 this season and romped to a 5-2 win on the western tip of France as recently as 1 February.

Bayern Munich could have drawn City in the play-off round but were instead paired with Celtic. The confidence coursing through a squad that has a 73.1% chance of advancing was captured by Thomas Muller's rallying cry after the draw was made: "Let's rock it!"

"Juventus is a strong opponent, but we believe we are better than them," PSV Eindhoven boss Peter Bosz declared. The supercomputer disagrees.

Milan's chances of knocking Feyenoord out of the competition (which stand at 65.7%) have undoubtedly been boosting by signing the Dutch club's best player, Santiago Gimenez during the January transfer window. Atalanta already boast Club Brugge graduate Charles De Ketelaere and are heavy favourite to breeze past their Belgian foes.

In the meeting between two clubs that have both endured managerial upheaval this season, Sporting CP are expected to edge out Borussia Dortmund, while Benfica's beleaguered boss Bruno Lage may need to get the better of Monaco (as predicted) if he wants to keep his job.

Supercomputer predicts 2024/25 Champions League winner

While the sides that finished between ninth and 24th in the swollen league phase table duke it out in February, eight clubs could rest easy with their place in March's round of 16 already secured.

Liverpool topped the new-fangled standings, only dropping points against PSV when Arne Slot left Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk, Alisson and a glut of other first-team players at home. The Reds lifted the club's seventh European Cup in almost a quarter (24.6%) of the 10,000 simulations made by Opta's supercomputer.

Arsenal are considered the next most-likely victors in a competition they have infamously never won. By finishing third in the league phase, the Gunners (and fourth-placed Inter) will face one of PSV, Juventus, Feyenoord or Milan in the round of 16, thereby avoiding the likes of Liverpool and Barcelona until at least the semi-finals of the competition.

Barcelona should not be discounted themselves. Lauded by their domestic foes, Hansi Flick's free-scoring record-breakers are a volatile proposition - in every sense.

Given their longer route to the final, Real Madrid's chances of retaining their Champions League trophy stand at just 4.4%, while Manchester City are tenth-favourites (3.2%).

Ultimately, these figures are little more than rough estimations. Before the campaign began, RB Leipzig were considered to be tenth-favourites to win the competition, yet they crashed out in the first round. 2021 winner Thomas Tuchel once described the Champions League as "the most beautiful competition but the most difficult competition that we play". It is also one of the most difficult to predict.

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