The Formula 1 offseason: What better time for speculation about what's to come?
F1's 2025 campaign promises to be thrilling for a number of reasons. Considering Lewis Hamilton's blockbuster move to Ferrari and a competitive field that is expected to be as tight as it was last year, it might be the hardest season to call in years. Preseason testing -- set to be held in Bahrain from Feb. 26-28 -- might give a clearer picture of what's to come, but little more than a month out from the Australian Grand Prix, here's a few things we think could happen in 2025.
Leclerc will win two races before Hamilton wins one
Ferrari's pairing of Hamilton and Charles Leclerc has already been the talk of 2025. The seven-time world champion's big-money move and his early weeks in red -- including tests at Fiorano and in Barcelona -- have captured the imagination of F1 fans. The tantalising question is who will fare better. While it's hard to make a prediction over 24 races, there's plenty of reasons to think Leclerc will have the far stronger start.
Why it's not an outrageous suggestion: While Hamilton was up and down in his final year with Mercedes, Leclerc has been in a groove for a while. There's a case to be made that Leclerc was F1's best driver from the summer break onward, with wins in Monza and Austin adding to Monaco earlier in the season. Leclerc's form helped catapult Ferrari into the constructors' championship battle with McLaren. Importantly, his inconsistency issues of old appear to be fading.
Then there's the car. Ferrari's 2024 resurgence was built on the Italian team turning the SF-24 into one that improved instead of faded during races, which had been a long-time problem with previous iterations, meaning Leclerc (arguably F1's quickest qualifier) can convert strong grid position into victories and podiums more often. This year's car will be similar to last.
On the flip side, Hamilton, statistically F1's greatest qualifier ever, has struggled for one-lap pace in the new generation of cars introduced in 2022. "I'm just slow. Same every weekend," he said in Qatar last November. This will be key this season, especially early on as Hamilton beds in with Ferrari. The team's race operation has improved under Frdric Vasseur too, strengthening the chances of whichever of the pair is the lead red car during a grand prix.
The notion that Hamilton lost a step over the past few years is unfounded. He should win plenty of races for Ferrari, but a slow start relative to Leclerc seems a fair prediction given where both men are coming into their first year as teammates.
Verstappen will leave Red Bull
With a new rule change on the horizon and Red Bull showing signs of creaking in 2024, this seems like a crucial 12 months in Max Verstappen's career trajectory. Whether it were to happen for 2026 or 2027, this could be the year that the four-time world champion decides his best chance of winning under the new regulations will be elsewhere.
Why it's not an outrageous suggestion: For a number of reasons. Firstly, Red Bull was a bizarre story last year, with team principal Christian Horner's misconduct investigation and rift with Verstappen's father, Jos, dominating headlines, while design legend Adrian Newey and sporting director Jonathan Wheatley both left for rival outfits. The team also blew the the constructors' championship despite winning seven of the first ten races. Only Verstappen's mega talent kept the drivers' championship in the Red Bull trophy cabinet.
Then there's the new regulations, which will dominate the narrative. After this season, Honda is leaving Red Bull for Aston Martin (Newey's new home), while Red Bull will produce its own engines in conjunction with Ford -- a huge undertaking for a company with little experience as an engine manufacturer.
Verstappen will have plenty of suitors and and longtime admirer Toto Wolff will be one of them. The Mercedes boss has made no secret of his desire to sign Verstappen down the line, and the door seems to be wide open there; the Daily Mail last month suggested that Aston Martin owner Lawrence Stroll is eyeing a �1 billion move for the Dutchman.
Then there's Verstappen himself. He never directly addressed questions of his future last year and, although he has a contract until 2028, things can change very quickly in F1. Being in the wrong place, in his prime, for a new set of regulations would be a horrifying prospect. You just have to look at how Mercedes themselves fared since 2022, with Hamilton and George Russell limited to a handful of wins between them, to see how quickly things can change.
If Red Bull's 2024 wobbles spill over into 2025, or doubts about the Ford partnership grow, other teams will smell blood in the water. If the likes of Mercedes and Aston Martin start to sound like a better long-term proposition, Verstappen might see a perfect moment for a change of scenery, even if he has to do a Hamilton and sign for a season or two down the line. Watch this space.
Alonso will take Aston back to the podium
The 2024 season was pretty miserable for Aston Martin on track, especially after the highs of Fernando Alonso's brilliant run of podiums in 2023. With all the focus at the team on the future -- headlined by its swanky new factory in Silverstone and Newey's arrival -- the short term has seemed a bit of a write-off. We can see Alonso returning to the podium scene this year, though.
Why it's not an outrageous suggestion: Because it's Alonso, for one thing, but also because it's hard to imagine Stroll stomaching another year of total anonymity in the midfield. While Newey's focus is largely on 2026 and beyond, Aston Martin has a new leadership team coming into this year, headed up by ex-Mercedes engine chief Andy Cowell and featuring former Ferrari man Enrico Cardile, and an operational improvement will be the bare minimum in terms of expectation. Then there's that new factory; Aston is still extracting gains from the new facility and we should see the fruits of that more obviously this season.
We are not expecting to see Aston Martin dramatically vault up the order, but the lead pack has converged, and opportunities could present themselves if the team in British racing green can take a step forward. If that happens, Alonso is exactly the man you want in the cockpit.
A rookie will win a race
No one has done this since Hamilton for McLaren in 2007, showing how difficult of a feat it is to manage. A driver needs a combination of factors: talent and a car capable of doing so. This seems like a good year for this record to be broken.
Why it's not an outrageous suggestion: Two drivers may have that combination this year.
One is a pure rookie: Hamilton's replacement, Italian wunderkind Andrea Kimi Antonelli, who is arriving in F1 on a wave of enormous hype. Antonelli had a rough practice debut at Monza, crashing early in the session, and we can expect a very up and down year. It is clear, though, that Mercedes think the pace is there. If the German manufacturer can put its car in the place needed for wins, Antonelli seems like the kind of special talent who could make a name for himself immediately.
Then there's someone who, officially, is a rookie: Red Bull's Liam Lawson. Sure, he has 10 races to his name, but this is his first full season in F1. He will play second fiddle to Verstappen this year, but his main job is just to find a comfortable baseline that Sergio Prez could not. Lawson races aggressively and has a confident swagger about him. He's not going to challenge for a title any time soon while Verstappen's teammate, but a grand prix win could be there for the taking in 2025 if he rises to the challenge properly.
Piastri will lead the championship at the summer break
For the first time in recent memory, McLaren enters a season as favourite for both titles. Lando Norris won four races in 2024, with Oscar Piastri getting two. Both should add to those numbers this season, but we are going to go against the grain and say Piastri is the early pace setter in the championship.
Why it's not an outrageous suggestion: Piastri's rise has been phenomenal. Norris was superb in the other car, but McLaren clearly expects to have a headache juggling its two thoroughbred drivers this season. Hungary and the "Papaya rules" saga in Monza last year highlighted how the team has struggled to manage it so far. Piastri's move on Norris in Italy was a statement of intent going forward.
While Norris' clutch performance in Abu Dhabi won McLaren the constructors' championship, his up-and-down season means he comes into 2025 under much more pressure. If the cool and composed Piastri can sort out his inconsistency problem, expect to see the exciting Australian underlining his credentials as a driver with championship pedigree.
