After the Philadelphia 76ers officially ruled out big man Joel Embiid for the season, ESPN's NBA insiders are breaking down how the 2023 MVP and Philly got here, plus what's next for all sides.
Joel Embiid was in the midst of one of the most dominant scoring seasons in NBA history before Golden State Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga accidentally fell onto his leg on Jan. 30, 2024. Prior to that moment, Embiid had scored more points than minutes played in the 2023-24 season, something no one had since Wilt Chamberlain more than 60 years ago.
Embiid had a procedure on that left knee a short time later, and it has remained a constant source of trouble for him for the last calendar year, up to when he and the Philadelphia 76ers decided Friday that his 2024-25 season was done.
While Embiid came back near the end of the 2023-24 regular season and played in Philadelphia's six-game loss to the New York Knicks in the first round of the playoffs, he was clearly less than 100%. (It was exacerbated by him dealing with a bout of Bell's Palsy during that series, too.)
Yet Embiid was still a force in that series, averaging 33.0 points, 10.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game. That performance was encouraging enough that Embiid was expected to put up a strong performance for Team USA in the Paris Olympics before being ready to go for training camp in the fall. But while Embiid did win a gold medal with Team USA, he struggled for large portions of the run while playing with a bulky brace on that left knee -- though he did have a strong performance in the fourth quarter of the team's legendary semifinal comeback against Nikola Jokic and Serbia.
Embiid arrived for training camp unable to get started on time. What initially was expected to be a few-day ramp-up quickly morphed into a few weeks, with Embiid eventually making his season debut on Nov. 12 against the Knicks.
By then, Philadelphia was 2-8. In fact, Embiid didn't play in a win until Dec. 8, when he returned after a seven-game absence to help the 76ers beat the Chicago Bulls. They then ripped off eight wins in 12 games -- including going 7-2 when Embiid played -- highlighted by a win in Boston on Christmas.
After a win at the Brooklyn Nets on Jan. 4, the 76ers stood at 14-19, and were a game back of the Bulls for the final East play-in spot. Embiid then missed the next month with both a foot sprain and the ongoing knee issues. He finally returned a month later in a win over the Dallas Mavericks on Feb. 4.
That was the final win Embiid played in. Philadelphia dropped his final five games of the season, including Saturday's two-point loss to the Nets that saw him spend the fourth quarter watching from the bench. The team remains mired in a eight-game losing skid, continuing a theme from throughout the season that saw Philadelphia consistently struggle with him on the court for the first time since his rookie year. -- Tim Bontemps
What to expect from the 76ers for the rest of this season?
To this point, the 76ers have yet to say anything other than they're going to try to keep winning and attempt to make the postseason. But that was also before this news, as Embiid officially being shut down culminates a disastrous season for himself and the franchise.
Friday's news will undoubtedly lead to questions about how much longer Paul George will keep playing this season. But, more than anything, this decision will now turn all attention to Philadelphia's top-6 protected first-round pick, the remnant of the 2020 deal that sent Al Horford to Oklahoma City for Danny Green.
The 76ers currently sit in sixth in the lottery -- which still gives the 76ers less than a 50% chance of keeping their pick. Will they lean into that path, and try to maximize their chances of keeping it, or instead keep trying to win? At this point, it's fair to wonder if it matters either way.
But with star rookie Jared McCain already sidelined for the season with meniscus surgery, there isn't much for 76ers fans to latch onto right now. Instead, they'll spend their nights keeping tabs on the prospects from this year's draft class, and wondering if after a season that's felt cursed in many ways, the 76ers will get some lucky bounces of the ping-pong balls for June's draft. -- Bontemps
What is Embiid's timetable to return to the court again?
Embiid has had two knee surgeries on this left meniscus, both on the lateral (outside) of it. The first was 2017, the second in 2024, and both of which doctors hoped that clipping off the injured portion of it would create long-term healing. But when two separate surgeries on the same area did not create a lasting fix, doctors have to look at more novel approaches, and that's where we are now.
Embiid experienced pain and swelling in his knee all throughout this season. It was unpredictable, sources said, sometimes coming after a good workout or game. That indicates there may be something else amiss with the meniscus or his alignment. His options could be surgical -- another meniscus repair, or a meniscus transplant, or even what's called an osteotomy, where doctors break a bone to re-align his body, according to medical experts consulted by ESPN who have not examined Embiid directly.
Those are more radical options that could warrant a lengthy recovery time that could stretch into next season.
Embiid has already received various injections into the knee to promote healing and recovery, but medical experts say there are other, less-invasive procedures he could still try. -- Ramona Shelburne
Where do the 76ers stand in the lottery race?
As noted, Philadelphia currently has the NBA's sixth-worst record at 20-38, but there's room to drop even further. The 76ers can't realistically catch any of the three bottom teams. At the low end, the Charlotte Hornets and Utah Jazz (both 14-44) are on pace for just 20 wins -- but are unlikely to reach that total given teams tend to fade more late in the regular season as players are shut down due to injury and young reserves get more minutes. The Washington Wizards, at 10-48, would have to catch fire to hit 20 wins.
The Sixers could realistically fall below the New Orleans Pelicans, who have won three in a row and are currently 4.5 games back of the 76ers in the overall standings. So long as Zion Williamson is healthy and playing at an All-Star level -- he's averaged 26.3 PPG on 62% shooting since Jan. 25 and recorded his first career triple-double on Thursday -- the Pelicans are better than the current Philadelphia team.
The Toronto Raptors, currently fifth in the lottery standings, are a wild card. The Raptors are 3-9 since a five-game winning streak in late January, and newly acquired Brandon Ingram still has no timetable for his return from a severe ankle sprain. The Sixers are 2.5 games ahead of Toronto in the standings.
Going behind just one team would have an enormous impact on Philly's chances of keeping its pick. The No. 5 seed in the lottery gets a top-six pick 64% of the time, compared to 46% for the No. 6 seed. And if the 76ers can finish behind both New Orleans and Toronto as the No. 4 seed, that would increase all the way to 81% chances of picking in the top six. -- Pelton
How does the injury impact Embiid's contract?
Unlike the five year, $146.6 million extension Embiid signed in 2017 that protected the 76ers in case Embiid suffered a significant injury, there is no such provision in either his current contract or the extension set to begin in 2026-27.
Embiid is owed $248.1 million over the next four seasons ($55.2M, $59.5M, $64.3M, $69.1M), all of which is guaranteed. The only way for the 76ers to get cap relief in future years would be if Embiid's knee issues are deemed to be career-ending.
The determination on whether Embiid suffered a career-ending injury would be made by a physician selected by the NBA and players association. If that's the case, then starting on Feb. 22, 2026 (one year from the last game Embiid played), Philadelphia could apply to the NBA to have Embiid's salary for the years of his contract removed from their cap sheet. They would also have to waive Embiid.
If the injury is not determined to be career-ending, but is significant enough that Embiid would miss all of the 2025-26 season, then the 76ers could apply for a Disabled Player Exception that would be worth the same as the non-taxpayer midlevel exception (since 50% of Embiid's salary is higher than that mark).
What's the effect on any 76ers' free agency plans?
The 76ers committed $800 million last offseason to Embiid, George and Maxey and are likely locked into their trio for the foreseeable future. The three players are set to earn a combined $146 million in 2025-26, which is 77% of Philadelphia's projected payroll.
How much flexibility the 76ers have to add in free agency will be determined by the lottery in May and player options of Kelly Oubre Jr., Andre Drummond and Eric Gordon, who will miss the remainder of the season after wrist surgery. The first-round slot and salaries for those three players total $25 million.
If Philadelphia retains their first-round pick and all three veterans opt-in prior to June 29, they will be $2 million below the luxury tax before free agency begins. They would then be allowed to use most of their $14.1 million non-tax mid-level exception to re-sign free agent Guerschon Yabusele.
Besides Yabusele, the big addition is likely to come with a healthy McCain and the potential lottery pick. McCain was averaging 15.3 points before he suffered a season ending left knee injury in December. -- Marks
What does this mean for the futures of George and Maxey?
George was the top free agent available this past summer, and landing him was supposed to launch the 76ers back toward the top of the East. Instead, George's tenure with the 76ers has never gotten off the ground.
The veteran swingman was coming off one of his best seasons with the LA Clippers, but has seen his production drop across the board in Philly. His 16.1 points per game are his lowest since his second season in the league, and he's shooting just 42.9% overall. To say his production has fallen short of the four-year, $212 million deal he signed this summer is a massive understatement.
Perhaps a full offseason to get his legs back under him will lead to a different outlook and performance next season, but this was a contract handed to a player who is turning 35 in May that was already expected to look rough in the final years. It was signed to deliver instant production. Instead, it was an instant failure.
Maxey, meanwhile, has bounced back from a slow start to essentially replicate his All-Star season from a year ago, and he remains the bridge to whatever the future of this franchise is moving forward. The 24-year-old guard is already seen as a leader in the locker room, and that role is only going to increase in the years to come. The question becomes what the rest of the roster is going to look like around him, as he's the only player who seems certain to be a factor for the 76ers moving forward. -- Bontemps
