No matter your fantasy baseball strategy, in these days of declining pitching workloads, piecing your pitching staff together is a practically mandatory practice.
The 2024 season was as representative of this as any. It saw the fewest pitchers (21) working at least 180 innings in any non-shortened season in history. Additionally, among the generally undrafted players in ESPN leagues who scored at least 350 fantasy points -- defining this as a player having a greater-than-200 average draft position (ADP) overall while being selected in under 25% of leagues -- 10 of the 14 such players were pitchers.
How might fantasy managers unearth some of this gold on the pitching side? My favorite method is to identify pitchers with potentially elite skill sets, but whose surface statistics -- "back of the baseball card" measures like wins and ERA -- belie their true talent. They are my annual "Kings of Command," pitchers who meet a specific set of statistical benchmarks reflecting excellence in the command department.
Kings of Command baseline numbers
Pitchers who qualify for inclusion exceeded the MLB averages listed below in all of the following categories during the 2024 season. Starting pitchers must have faced at least 200 batters and relief pitchers must have faced at least 100 batters, while serving in those specific roles.
Starting pitchers:
Swinging-strike rate (SwStrk%): 11.8% or more
First-pitch strike rate (1stPStrk%): 62.9% or more
Command rate (K's per walk, or K/BB): 2.89 or more
Relief pitchers:
Swinging-strike rate (SwStrk%): 12.7% or more
First-pitch strike rate (1stPStrk%): 61.6% of more
Command rate (K's per walk, or K/BB): 2.61 or more
Put-away rate (K's per 2-strike count): 19.8% or more
Using those thresholds, 98 pitchers (40 starters and 58 relievers) met all of those criteria in either role. Among them were both Cy Young Award winners (Chris Sale, Tarik Skubal), both Reliever of the Year Award winners, (Emmanuel Clase, Ryan Helsley), each of the top four starting pitchers in terms of both fantasy points scored and Player Rater finish, and every one of the four relief pitchers who earned a Cy Young vote.
The following nine names, however -- none of whom were anywhere near as ballyhooed as Skubal, Zack Wheeler or Corbin Burnes or their ilk -- also qualified. That's not to place any of them on an equal (or even a nearby) pedestal as those three fantasy stalwarts, but each possesses underappreciated skills that had them perform statistically beneath our radar in 2024.
Each is a potential bargain in fantasy drafts, and each might be only a minor tweak or adjustment to a specific pitch or his pitch usage, the pitcher's stance on the pitching rubber, greater fortune on batted balls, or an increased opportunity on his team away from breaking through.
Let's examine what it might take for each to emerge. My "Kings of Command" are listed in alphabetical order, along with their 2024 Player Rater finishes and fantasy point totals using ESPN's standard scoring.
David Festa, Minnesota Twins
2024 Player Rater: SP172/745th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 107 (SP166)
His strengths: Between his 95-mph fastball and his slider and changeup, Festa has legitimate swing-and-miss stuff, generating the third-best swinging strike rate (16.4%) among Triple-A pitchers last season in addition to meeting this column's qualifications. Across his final 10 starts with the Twins, he held opposing hitters to a .228 batting average and struck out 29.2%.
How he could break out: Festa introduced a new sinker to his repertoire, which could help him improve against right-handers (.332 wOBA allowed in the majors, 17 points higher than he had in Triple-A), and is pitching entirely out of the stretch this spring. Merely cracking the Twins rotation might fuel a breakthrough, but progress with either the new sinker or his slider (29% whiff rate, 6% beneath the league's average) would ultimately fuel his biggest step forward.
Robert Garcia, Texas Rangers
2024 Player Rater: RP123/398th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 147 (RP126)
His strengths: A sneaky pickup in December's Nathaniel Lowe trade, Garcia had a 2.39 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching score) last season as a member of the Washington Nationals bullpen, 11th-best among 160 relief pitchers with at least 50 innings. Thanks to an electric changeup, he held right-handed hitters to a .272 wOBA (league average for lefties was .314) with a 31.1% strikeout rate, alleviating any worry about platoon splits or a situational role.
How he could break out: Better luck would go a long way toward vaulting Garcia up the fantasy leaderboard, as he had a ghastly .331 BABIP (.290 league average for relievers) and second-worst-among-relievers 57.2% left-on-base (LOB) rate. A crack at the late innings, in what's largely a wide-open Rangers bullpen, would also help.
Chris Martin, Texas Rangers
2024 Player Rater: RP91/331st overall
2024 fantasy point total: 143 (RP133)
His strengths: He has long been one of the better relievers in baseball, as his 2.66 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 66 holds are all top-10 numbers among relievers with at least 200 IP over the past five seasons combined. Martin possesses exceptional control, as his 2.9% walk rate during that same time span leads all relievers. Plus, he has never issued more than eight walks in a single MLB season.
How he could break out: Martin is the most logical choice to close for the Rangers, but better luck in the health department is imperative if he's to retain the job. He has made seven trips to the IL during the past five seasons -- including multiple stints in three of them -- and only once made as many as 60 appearances (2022). That health history opens the door for Garcia to potentially emerge.
Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers
2024 Player Rater: SP98/405th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 209 (SP104)
His strengths: He has two potentially elite strikeout pitches in his slider and changeup, both of which generated at least a 43% whiff rate in 2024 (MLB rates on each were 34% and 31%). Through two months, he appeared to be on the verge of a major breakthrough, posting a 1.92 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over his first 10 starts. However, shoulder issues cost him nearly two months during the second half, interrupting his momentum.
How he could break out: Olson's command of his four-seam fastball and changeup waned after his hot start and will need correction if he's to recapture the promise he showed early last year. The fastball in particular needs improvement, as it generated the sixth-worst whiff rate (13%) among pitchers who threw at least as many as he did the past two seasons, which is why it's encouraging to see him throwing it a full mph faster (95.4) in his two Statcast-measured spring starts thus far.
Chris Paddack, Minnesota Twins
2024 Player Rater: SP174/751st overall
2024 fantasy point total: 127 (SP151)
His strengths: He's a master of control, as among 113 pitchers with at least as many as his 82 career starts over the past six seasons, his 5.0% walk rate ranks sixth, his 66.4% first-pitch strike rate ranks 11th and his 52.6% in-zone rate ranks 12th. Paddack's changeup has also shown an ability to be top shelf when he's healthy and possesses full command of it, including 2020, when Statcast graded it as the league's fourth best-performing changeup.
How he could break out: Health, health, health. Paddack has had only one professional season with as many as 120 innings pitched, while averaging just 58 IP over the last four. The Twins seem confident enough in him to likely hand him a season-opening rotation spot, but he'll first need to stay on the mound long enough to make it worth discussing his next breakout ingredient (better luck on batted balls).
Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 Player Rater: SP78/317th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 317 (SP49)
His strengths: A "pepper the strike zone" control artist -- his 68.4% first-pitch strike and 53.2% in-zone rates since the date of his MLB debut rank fourth and 14th -- Pfaadt has a 5.5% walk rate between the majors and minors over the past four seasons combined. He also has a four-seamer/sweeper/sinker combination that is flat-out nasty against right-handed hitters (26.6% K rate, versus 20.5% against lefties).
How he could break out: Better luck is the easy answer, as Pfaadt's 64.5% strand rate and .315 BABIP last season were second- and fifth-worst among ERA qualifiers, but the true path to greatness is a stronger pitch mix against left-handed hitters. Corrections to those rates could vault him into the position's top 40. Reaching the top 20 requires tweaks to his four-seamer or curveball to counter lefties, who have a wOBA 47 points higher against him through two seasons.
A.J. Puk, Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 Player Rater: RP58/210th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 206 (RP59)
His strengths: Puk's miserable four-start stint with the Miami Marlins to begin last season, coupled with the shoulder injury that cost him three-plus weeks immediately thereafter, masked how truly brilliant his finish to 2024 was. Over the final three months, he had an 0.99 ERA, a 43.6% strikeout rate, a .128 BAA, a 1.35 FIP to back the performance up, and a 5.3% walk rate to match the marked improvement he showed in terms of control the season before.
How he could break out: His path to fantasy greatness lies in his bullpen role, as he needs to be in place to pile up saves, or at least holds. Puk's 95-96 mph fastball and slider generate excellent whiff rates, fueling a hefty number of strikeouts, and it's an easy case to make that he and Justin Martinez should form a formidable, underrated one-two punch at the back end of the Diamondbacks' bullpen.
Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
2024 Player Rater: SP46/191st overall
2024 fantasy point total: 342 (SP39)
His strengths: Improvements he made to his changeup in 2023 have quickly transformed him into one of the game's more underrated pitchers. Statcast graded Sanchez with the league's best changeup last season and his 91 strikeouts with them were the most by any pitcher. His control has improved markedly during that same time (13th-ranked 5.2% walk rate from 2023-24), and his heavy ground ball lean (58.3% rate last year) minimizes his risk of damaging innings.
How he could break out: He's kind of doing it already, having fanned 12 out of 30 hitters through his three spring starts. Sanchez, a pitcher constantly refining his pitch repertoire, has most notably seen his sinker go from a 92.1 mph average velocity in 2023, to 94.5 in 2024, to 96.9 in the two of those starts measured by Statcast. He'll take a big leap forward if that fuels even a hint of a higher whiff rate with the pitch.
Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves
2024 Player Rater: SP47/195th overall
2024 fantasy point total: 279 (SP67)
His strengths: Schwellenbach, a high school and college shortstop (plus Nebraska's 2021 closer) who didn't even make his first pitching start until 21 months after being drafted due to Tommy John surgery, sure looked like a future fantasy ace in his 2024 rookie year. He flashed five-plus pitches, two of which had at least a 40% whiff rate (curveball and splitter), sported a 4.6% walk rate in the majors, and posted a 2.73 ERA and 27.5% K rate across his 13 second-half starts.
How he could break out: Most every question Schwellenbach faces as he enters his sophomore season relates to how a pitcher with 65 total professional innings across his first 2 years fares after a 168 inning campaign like he had last year. Fortunately, he's showing no ill effects of the workload spike during spring training. More cutter or curveball reliance against lefties, to narrow what was a 66-point wOBA split, would be a nice added touch.
