The UFC's middleweight division takes center stage for the fourth time this year, as Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze square off in the main event at UFC Fight Night on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelim at 4 p.m. on ESPN+).
Vettori, unranked by ESPN, is competing for the first time since June 2023. He has lost three of his last five fights. Dolidze, ESPN's No. 10 ranked middleweight, enters the fight riding a two fight winning streak, following wins over Anthony Smith and Kevin Holland in 2024.
Brett Okamoto spoke to Fortis MMA coach Sayif Saud to get his perspective on the main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Middleweight: Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze
Sayif Saud, Fortis MMA coach
How Vettori wins: Vettori has been in the Octagon with some of the best in the sport. He hasn't always come out on top, but he never gets finished and he's already beaten Dolidze once (a unanimous decision win in 2023). So, you figure his confidence is high going into this fight. Vetori, 31, is going to look to keep Dolidze, 36, at range with his standup, and if he can do that for five rounds and not allow Dolidze to take him down and control him for stretches of time, he'll win.
How Dolidze wins: Dolidze is coming into his own right now. I don't know if it's just because he's getting older, or if he needed to string together a few wins, but he's not the same fighter he was when they fought two years ago. He still relies on his grappling, though, and while he's got a long reach, he prefers to use his hands to get close to people and get them down. He's a big, powerful guy for the division, but so is Vettori. Dolidze needs to remember that judges are scoring completely on damage. He might control Vettori in the clinch or take him to the ground, but if Vettori lands a few combinations on the feet, he might steal some rounds. And because Vettori is so durable, you have to consider the fight going to the scorecards. So, it's critical that Dolidze feels comfortable enough to score a bit and look comfortable on the feet in the judges' eyes.
X factor: Which Vettori shows up? He's been out for a while, and he's switched up his training. Maybe he turns up with an entirely new skill set. And for Dolidze, can he score points and create damage with his style, and not rely too much on control.
Prediction: This is a battle of wills, as close to a coin-flip fight as you can get.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Vettori to win (-150). In their first fight, Vettori got the win via decision and I see the same result happening again. On the ground, Dolidze is the stronger jiu-jitsu practitioner but not the stronger wrestler, so don't expect him to get Vettori on the canvas. On the feet, Vettori is the better striker and has shown unbelievable durability throughout his career. Although Dolidze does carry knockout power, his strikes are predictable and Vettori should have the speed advantage to avoid the power and earn another decision win.
Parker's best bets on the rest of the card
Lightweight: Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh
Hernandez to win (-200). Holobaugh is a seasoned vet and he is as tough as they come, however Hernandez is better everywhere this fight could go. As long as Hernandez doesn't allow Holobaugh to dictate the pace early on, Hernandez should be able to utilize his striking to set up his wrestling and get the win.
Featherweight: SeungWoo Choi vs. Kevin Vallejos
Vallejos to win inside the distance. Vallejos takes on the always exciting Choi who will be looking for a KO. Vallejos is a near 5-to-1 favorite and I understand why. He's a blue chip prospect while Choi has been KO'd in two of his last three fights.
Expect Vallejos to get a knockout win here and add to his 71% knockout rate. Choi will have some moments, as he likes to swing for the fence to land a big shot. However, when he does that, he keeps his hands low and chin high which is a recipe to get knocked out.
Heavyweight: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ryan Spann
Over 1.5 rounds (-175). Cortes-Acosta is getting his toughest opponent to date in Spann. Cortes-Acosta has a strong right hand and good cardio, but if you put him on his back, he has no answers in the jiu-itsu department. The question is: Which Spann are we getting in this fight? He has all the tools to be a top 10 fighter in the division, but when it's time to show up, Spann doesn't. Coming off his last win where he submitted Ovince Saint Preux, I would like to think Spann realizes that his wrestling and submission game is what can win him this fight against a striker. Due to the durability of Cortes-Acosta and the likely takedown attempts by Spann early on, I believe this fight will go over the 1.5 round mark before we see a winner.
