Jets find themselves in familiar territory as draft nears

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- A look at what's happening around the New York Jets:

1. Familiar theme: When they're on the clock with the seventh overall pick in the draft on April 24, the Jets could be faced with the intriguing choice of a prolific pass-catching tight end or a highly skilled tackle who would fill a glaring hole on their offensive line.

Sound familiar?

A year ago, the pre-draft buzz surrounding the Jets focused on Georgia tight end Brock Bowers and a handful of highly-rated tackles. Sure enough, Bowers was on the board for the Jets, who had traded down one spot to 11th, but they opted for Penn State left tackle Olu Fashanu -- and immediately named him Tyron Smith's backup. Yes, backup.

Bowers, taken two picks later by the Las Vegas Raiders, went on to a record-setting rookie season (112 receptions for 1,194 yards). Fashanu replaced the injured Smith at midseason and showed steady improvement. No one is calling him "generational" like they are Bowers, but the pick still is holding its value because he plays a premium position.

Now here we go again, with another Nittany Lion in the conversation.

Penn State tight end Tyler Warren is a potential top-10 pick, as is Missouri right tackle Armand Membou. Both would fill needs. The Jets didn't re-sign tight end Tyler Conklin (Los Angeles Chargers) and right tackle Morgan Moses (New England Patriots), and they didn't make any big moves to replace them. They added Stone Smartt and Chukwuma Okorafor, respectively, as bargain-bin free agents.

In his latest mock draft, ESPN senior draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. picks Warren to the Jets.

"I went with Warren because they passed on Bowers last year, and I thought with Justin Fields, that would be somebody that could really create a nightmare for defensive coordinators," Kiper said. "I thought maybe you could find a right tackle down the line just a bit.

"Membou, he's tempting. I tell you, he's very tempting because and he's a plug-and-play guy, as Warren would be. You can't take 'em both. You have to take one of the two. There's a pretty good chance both will be there at seven. ... Membou or Warren, take your pick. I don't think anybody could argue with either one of those players."

Warren made 104 receptions last season for 1,233 yards (11.9 average yards per catch), eight touchdowns and an impressive 6.7 yards-after-catch per reception. As a gamebreaker, he might not be on the same level as Bowers, but he'd be an upgrade. The Jets' tight ends averaged a league-low 8.1 yards per catch last season. Warren (6-foot-6, 256 pounds) also is a steady blocker, and that would help the Jets, who figure to be more run-oriented teams with a dual-threat quarterback like Fields.

Kiper called Warren a "very valuable chess piece." Meanwhile, Membou (6-4, 332) is a road grader with 30 career starts who capped an excellent season with a strong combine performance that included a 4.91-second time in the 40-yard dash. His draft stock is soaring. As Kiper said, "He's red hot right now."

You're probably thinking, "Why take another offensive lineman?"

Former general manager Joe Douglas invested heavily in the line -- three first-round picks and one second rounder -- but new coach Aaron Glenn comes from the Detroit Lions, where they used strong line play as the foundation for their turnaround.

There's no clear-cut starter at right tackle, so Membou, or perhaps LSU's Will Campbell, will be a consideration. Let the debate begin: Tackle or tight end?

2. Corner covered: Of all their starting-lineup needs, the only addition that can be considered more than a one-year stopgap is cornerback. The $23 million guarantee for Brandon Stephens is basically a two-year commitment. Fields did receive a $30 million guarantee, but we all know the quarterback pay scale is different than the others.

Bottom line, it would be a surprise if they use a high pick on a corner. Every other position is on the table.

3. Strange, but true: In the common draft era (since 1967), the Jets never have picked a player at No. 7 overall. They've had 26 top-10 picks, with at least one pick at every slot except seven. In fact, it's the only vacant slot in the top 18.

That ends this year ... if they keep the pick.

4. Sauce's turn? Houston Texans star Derek Stingley Jr. became the first 2022 first-round pick to receive a contract extension -- a three-year, $90 million extension that resets the cornerback market. It includes $48 million guaranteed at signing, and it ties him to the Texans through 2029.

Somewhere, Sauce Gardner is smiling.

Gardner, drafted one spot after Stingley (third and fourth overall) by the Jets, can make a case that he deserves to be the Next Man Up.

He has accumulated more accolades than Stingley -- 2022 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, two Pro Bowls and two All-Pro honors, compared to one Pro Bowl and one All-Pro for Stingley. From an analytics standpoint, Stingley rates the edge, as he has outperformed Gardner the last two seasons, based on EPA/target (NFL Next Gen Stats), as the nearest defender. It's worth noting, however, that Gardner has played in 48 out of 51 games, compared to Stingley's 37. Durability matters.

Bottom line, they're both outstanding corners. It's probably safe to say that Gardner is seeking more than $30 million per year, and he's probably looking to secure the bag before the start of the season.

He's due to make $5.3 million in 2025, plus an estimated $20 million in 2026 (fifth-year option). The Jets could try to slow-play the negotiations because his cap charge won't spike until 2026, but the price of is likely to increase if they wait.

5. Did you know? Every team still owns its first-round pick, which hasn't happened this close to the draft since 1993, according to ESPN Research. That year, the Kansas City Chiefs traded a first-round pick for Joe Montana five days before the draft. This year, no team has traded its first-rounder.

In case you're wondering, the last time the Jets didn't make a first-round pick was 2005. On draft day, they traded out of the first round for a package that brought veteran tight end Doug Jolley.

6. Q is due: It'll be interesting to see how the team handles Quincy Williams' contract situation.

The linebacker is entering the final year of a three-year, $18 million deal, which he has outperformed. He was first team All-Pro in 2023 and followed up with a solid season. His $6 million average per year ranks 37th among off-ball linebackers, per Over The Cap.

The Jets just rewarded linebacker Jamien Sherwood with a three-year, $45 million contract on the eve of free agency, so it would be only natural for Williams to wonder, "What about me?" The previous administration was open to extending him before the start of the 2025 season; it's unclear if the new regime feels the same way.

7. Get ready: The Jets open their offseason program on April 7. By rule, teams with new coaches are allowed to start two weeks earlier than the rest.

8. Looking for a home: Aaron Rodgers is the only prominent free agent from the 2024 Jets still looking for a new team. All signs point to the Pittsburgh Steelers, as he spent six hours with them at their facility Friday. It's worth noting the Steelers are on the Jets' home schedule, so a Rodgers return to MetLife Stadium is a distinct possibility.

Conklin hasn't been linked to any teams, which is a surprise when you consider he's had 170 catches over the past three seasons. The Jets don't appear to be an option unless he's willing to settle for a backup-type contract.