Clay: 41 things I learned while compiling 2025 fantasy football projections

If you're not already aware, I'm the human who creates the fantasy football player projections here at ESPN.

Although some would swear the projection numbers are totally automated or randomly generated, I assure you they are not. I have a lengthy process that involves a mixture of statistical calculations and subjective inputs. The latter is where this column truly comes in handy. To begin each NFL season, I go team by team and thoroughly analyze historical league, team, coach and player trends. From there, on the player level, I generate projected dropback, carry and target shares for each player.

I recently completed that process and -- same as in recent years -- took notes. Below are my observations, as well as a brief application to fantasy football in 2025.

Be sure to also check out my detailed 2025 NFL projection guide, which is routinely updated throughout the offseason.

1. Since stepping into a starting role in Week 8 of the 2023 season, Trey McBride has an enormous 28.4% target share (9.0 per game). He's averaging 6.8 receptions, 69.3 yards and 15.4 fantasy points per game during the span. He was the poster boy for bad TD luck in 2024, totaling three scores (two receiving) despite finishing second at the position in targets, catches, yards, end zone targets (10) and fantasy points. McBride's TE-high 7.9 expected TD total speaks to his bad luck and, though he also didn't score much in 2023 (three TDs on 108 targets), he's a candidate for a big improvement in the area in 2025 (despite what I'm about to point out in Item No. 2).

2. Check out the percentage of Arizona's offensive TDs that have been passes since Kyler Murray arrived (starting with 2019): 53%, 55%, 53%, 53%, 51%, 54%. That's near-impossible consistency and, of course, gives us a pretty good idea of what to expect in 2025.

3. Offensive EPA and offensive TDs correlate extremely well (r²= 0.86), but outliers always find their way into the mix. Last season, the Jaguars (18th in offensive EPA, 27th in offensive TDs) had the "unluckiest" offense, with the Cardinals (8th, 15th) and Rams (13th, 20th) just behind. On the other hand, the Panthers (25th, 12th) were easily the "luckiest" (more on this later), with the Colts (21st, 12th) and Vikings (16th, 9th) next in line. Watch out for the regression monster in 2025.

4. In order to truly evaluate Bijan Robinson, we need to split his 2024 season into two segments. During Weeks 1-5, Robinson averaged 17.0 touches, 87.2 yards and 13.5 fantasy points (24th at RB). He scored one TD and cleared 18 touches once. From Week 6 on, Robinson averaged 23.3 touches, 120.9 yards and 22.8 fantasy points (first at RB). He scored 14 TDs and had 18-plus touches in all but one game (16 in a Week 11 blowout loss). Entering his age-23 campaign and working in an Atlanta offense that was third-run-heaviest in the league last season, Robinson is primed for a huge statistical season.

5. Mark Andrews is a tricky evaluation after an odd career turn in 2024, in which he can be considered fortunate to finish TE8 in fantasy PPG after top-5 finishes the prior five seasons. After handling a target share in the 22-28% range during the 2019-23 seasons, Andrews dipped to 15% in 2024 (20th) and finished 20th in targets, 14th in catches, ninth in yards and first in TDs among tight ends. Andrews has always been extremely efficient when targeted (he's never finished lower than fifth in YPRR), but he's also never been quite as TD dependent (11 TDs in 2024 were a career high and his 16.2% TD rate was way above his prior career rate of 7.1%). Andrews was bailed out by the TD outlier (which stemmed from a Baltimore offense that averaged a ridiculous and likely unsustainable 3.6 TDs per game) and he will need to bounce back in the target area in order to return to elite TE1 production.

6. Dalton Kincaid failed to clear 13.1 fantasy points in a single game last season, which is pretty hard to believe when you consider he handled a 20.3% target share (5.8 per game) in a Josh Allen-led offense that averaged 3.6 touchdowns per game (the highest ever by an Allen offense). Kincaid handled seven-plus targets in six of 13 regular-season games, but never cleared 53 yards in a single outing and found the end zone only twice. He finished 15th at tight end in targets despite four missed games, but was 26th in catches and 28th in yards thanks to an ugly 59% catch rate and 6.0 YPT. Kincaid's pedigree (2023 first-rounder), heavy usage and the strong Buffalo offense provide hope for a Year 3 leap, but he's risky after such an underwhelming 2024.

7. Earlier I mentioned the discrepancy between the Panthers' offensive EPA and TD output. Some needed context here: The offense was horrific during Weeks 1-7 (-7.5 EPA per game, which ranked 28th), but solid from Week 8 on (+3.2, 17th). Carolina ended the season by scoring two-plus offensive TDs in 10 consecutive games, averaging 2.8 per game during the span. Another leap forward from Bryce Young will be the key to getting this offense to the next level.

8. The pass-heaviest offense in the NFL? Undoubtedly the Bengals. Cincinnati called pass at a rate 10 percentage points above expected in 2022, +7% in 2023 and +9% in 2024. That won't change in 2025 with Joe Burrow under center, and Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at wide receiver.

9. Bo Nix scored 316.2 fantasy points last season, which ranks fifth all time by a rookie quarterback. The other nine in the top 10? Cam Newton, Jayden Daniels, Justin Herbert, Robert Griffin III, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and C.J. Stroud. That's some good company and provides optimism that Nix is the real deal. After tossing only five TDs in his first seven games, Nix threw 24 in his final 10 outings (2.4 per game). That included at least three pass TDs in three of his final four outings. Nix finished the regular season sixth in pass attempts, completions and pass TDs (29), and fifth in carries (92-430-4 rushing line). Nix's dual-threat ability is notable, as over the past decade there have been only 34 instances of a QB with 200-plus pass attempts and 90-plus carries in a season. That group averaged 21.1 fantasy PPG, 27 were top 10 at QB in fantasy pts (18 were top 5) and none finished lower than 18th. Nix is one of the 34 (it's an extremely impressive list) and one of just three rookies on it (Daniels and Murray are the others). It's notable that Nix's 6.66 YPA is lowest of the 34, but he did go from 5.7 during Weeks 1-7 to 7.4 in final 10 games. The future appears bright for Nix.

10. Speaking of Denver, newcomer Evan Engram has a career target share of 19.9%, which includes 23.6% and 25.2% over the past two seasons. Sean Payton, meanwhile, hasn't had a team TE target share above 19% since 2015, with those eight TE rooms averaging 15%. Should this concern you with regard to Engram's fantasy output? Absolutely not. Payton did not have a pass-catching TE at Engram's level during those eight seasons (Jared Cook, Coby Fleener, Adam Trautman and Josh Hill were his main options), whereas Jimmy Graham had no issue posting three consecutive top-2 fantasy seasons with Payton in 2011, 2013 and 2014 (Payton was suspended for 2012). Engram remains squarely in the back-end TE1 mix and there's upside for even more.

11. One more on the Broncos: It took a year and a half, but Payton finally expanded Marvin Mims Jr.'s role in the second half of last season. From Week 10 on (nine games, including the playoffs), Mims handled 14 carries and 41 targets, which worked out to 5.3 touches per game. He scored six TDs and averaged 13.2 fantasy PPG, which included three games with 19 or more points in his final five regular-season outings. On the negative side, Mims remained a part-time player during the heater, failing to play more than 48% of the offensive snaps in any game prior to hitting 69% in the wild card loss to Buffalo. Perhaps the 2023 second-rounder is headed for a Year 3 breakout, but that could quickly be derailed if Denver selects an early-round WR in April's draft.

12. After pacing all tight ends in fantasy points as a rookie in 2023, Sam LaPorta fell to eighth in 2024. His receiving line dipped across the board (from 86-889-10 on 121 targets to 60-726-7 on 84 targets), though it's notable that he did get back on track to some extent after a slow start. After averaging 2.8 targets (11% team share) and 7.1 fantasy PPG during his first six games, LaPorta leapt to 6.7 targets (21% share) and 13.6 fantasy PPG in his final 11 (including the playoffs). Those numbers are near identical to his rookie season and closer to what we should expect moving forward.

13. Jordan Love seems like a decent fantasy option, but a closer look suggests he's a fade. He came out strong last season with a pair of top-3 fantasy outings in his first four games, but believe it or not, he had no other weekly finishes better than 10th the rest of the season. From Week 8 on, he finished outside the top 20 in five of 10 games. Love was a nonfactor with his legs (83 rushing yards in 15 games) and, after totaling 15 pass TDs in his first five games, he had only 10 in his final 10 outings. Green Bay did score an unusually high percentage of its offensive TDs on the ground last season (46%, the second highest for a Matt LaFleur offense), but it was legit, as the Packers leaned heavily on Josh Jacobs. Perhaps a healthy Love will run more and Green Bay will call more passes near the goal line, but both may need to happen to get Love into the QB1 mix.

14. There were seven games last season in which Dontayvion Wicks played at least 70% of the offensive snaps (Romeo Doubs and/or Christian Watson were sidelined those weeks). Wicks handled a healthy 22% target share (6.6 per game), but wasn't overly productive. After a strong 5-78-2 showing on 13 targets (24.8 fantasy points) in Week 4, he failed to clear seven targets, five receptions, 49 yards or 9.9 fantasy points in any of the other six outings. Even with Watson likely to miss all or most of 2025, Wicks will be no more than an occasional flex dart throw.

15. Anthony Richardson played 10 full games last season. During those outings, the Colts' offense scored eight passing and 15 rushing TDs. The total scoring is fine (2.3 per game is right at league average), but the ratio is concerning for the team's pass catchers (Alec Pierce and Josh Downs each caught three of the TDs, with Jonathan Taylor and Ashton Dulin managing the others). Richardson scored six of the 15 rush TDs, with (here's some good news) Jonathan Taylor running in seven (in nine games). Buyer beware on Colts pass catchers if Richardson is the 2025 starter. And now for more on that topic ...

16. Michael Pittman Jr. averaged a healthy 27% target share in 10 full games with Richardson, but that led to only a 39-428-0 receiving line on 65 targets. He averaged 8.0 fantasy PPG, reaching double digits once (15.6 in Week 12). Downs averaged a solid 24% target share in seven full games with Richardson, but that led to a 22-338-3 receiving line on 41 targets (5.9 per game). He averaged 10.7 fantasy PPG, reaching 15 points three times, but falling short of 6.5 in the four games he didn't find the end zone. In 12 games in which Pittman Jr. and Downs were also active, Pierce handled 12% of the targets (3.8 per game) and cleared five in a game only once. If we filter to the six games played with Richardson, Pittman and Downs, Pierce averaged 3.8 targets and 4.4 fantasy points per game, failing to score a TD or clear 10.4 fantasy points in any of the outings. As mentioned, buyer beware, especially with Adonai Mitchell a good bet for a larger role in Year 2.

17. Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby played six games together once Bigsby returned from injury in Week 13 last season. Bigsby out-carried Etienne, 73-68, but Etienne held an edge in snaps (205-149), routes (98-57) and targets (22-7). Bigsby scored three TDs to Etienne's zero, but Etienne was still the "better" fantasy producer (9.3 to 7.8 in PPG) during the span. This committee is setting up to be a fantasy nightmare, though perhaps new coach Liam Coen can make some magic happen, as he did with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White in Tampa Bay last season.

18. Brenton Strange is the new No. 1 tight end in Jacksonville following the aforementioned Engram's departure. We got a preview of this last season when Engram was sidelined for eight games. In those weeks, Strange played 72% of the snaps and handled a solid 14.6% target share (4.9 per game). That led to one big fantasy outing (12-11-73-0 in Week 15), but he otherwise averaged 6.9 fantasy PPG and failed to clear 12.4 points in any of the other seven outings. Perhaps Strange gets to another level in Year 3, but he seems likely to settle in as a low-ceiling TE2.

19. Xavier Worthy was selected in the first round last season, with the Chiefs perhaps hoping he'd help replace the explosiveness lost when they dealt Tyreek Hill two years prior. Interestingly, Worthy's rookie season (79 touches, 742 yards, 9 TDs) was rather similar to Hill's first year with the team (85-860-9). Worthy was involved as a rusher (20-104-3) and receiver (59-638-6), dominating with the ball in his hands (his 7.0 RAC was ninth best among WRs). Perhaps the most notable stat pertaining to Worthy is his late-season emergence. He handled a hefty 26% target share (8.7 per game) in his final six games (including the playoffs) and scored at least 19 fantasy points in five of those games. Working with a QB (Patrick Mahomes) who has finished top 10 in passing yards and TDs seven straight years, as well as with Travis Kelce aging and Rashee Rice dealing with an ACL recovery and potential suspension, the 22-year-old Worthy is well positioned for a big breakout.

20. The last time a Pete Carroll offense had a negative EPA was 2011. Yes, that was the year prior to Russell Wilson's arrival (Tarvaris Jackson was the QB), but we also saw competent play from Geno Smith in Carroll's final two seasons with Seattle (2022-23). Seattle operated fast-moving, pass-first offenses those years, which allowed Smith a ninth-place finish in fantasy PPG in 2022, prior to a step back in 2023 (22nd). A similar scheme in Las Vegas would be beneficial for the team's pass catchers, including Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, not to mention Smith's sleeper appeal.

21. Najee Harris signed with the Chargers and, while he's well positioned to handle a huge chunk of the carries, we shouldn't expect many targets. Jim Harbaugh's five NFL offenses have combined for an 11% tailback target share (15% if we include fullbacks) and none cleared 14%. Greg Roman's tailback target rate is 12% (15% with fullbacks) for the 10 offenses he's called plays for full time since 2011. None of them cleared 17%. The numbers for both coaches (which includes five years of crossover) are well below a league-average rate that has floated around the 18-20% range over the past decade.

22. Harris, by the way, is the only tailback in the league who has appeared in all 68 regular-season games since the league moved to a 17-game regular season prior to 2021. Time will tell if the 27-year-old can make it five seasons in a row.

23. One more thing on the Chargers: In last year's version of this column, I warned not to just assume this team would be run-heavy under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman, as they had generally called balanced offenses, but ended up running a lot due to game script. Sure enough, the Chargers were the game-script-adjusted ninth pass-heaviest offense in 2024. The offense did move slowly (as expected), which limited Justin Herbert's ceiling, and while he's now finished just outside the top 10 in fantasy PPG three seasons in a row, he did improve in the second half of the season (24th during Weeks 1-7, but 10th Weeks 8-18).

24. From Week 10 on, Puka Nacua handled a massive 37% target share (11.3 per game). He was at or above 31% (or eight targets) in all 10 games. With Cooper Kupp out and Davante Adams in, Nacua remains well positioned for another big target share (Sean McVay has a habit of leaning heavily on his core players). The only slight red flag with Nacua is touchdowns, as he has only nine in 28 games, and he was limited to six end zone targets (53rd at WR) in 2024. A leap in that area is what he'll need in order to get to elite fantasy production.

25. Over the past decade, there have been only 12 instances of a player producing 200-plus carries and 75-plus receptions in a single season. De'Von Achane did it in 2024, joining an elite group that includes Christian McCaffrey (x3), David Johnson, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, Le'Veon Bell (x2), Ezekiel Elliott, Breece Hall and Leonard Fournette. Interestingly, Achane's 2024 output (203-907-6 rushing, 87-78-592-6 receiving) is very similar to 2023 for Hall (209-876-5, 77-57-483-3) and 2021 for Ekeler (206-911-12, 92-70-647-8), with a high dependence on receiving (more on that later). Achane also benefited greatly from Miami facing two-high safeties at a league-high 56.3% rate (which helps explain the success for him and Jonnu Smith, whereas Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle underwhelmed). The knocks on Achane are his size (188 pounds, though he held up in 2024, playing in all 17 games and finishing ninth at RB in snaps) and the fact that his play dipped considerably when Tua Tagovailoa was out. Speaking of which ...

26. Incredibly, Achane did not see fewer than four targets in any of the 11 games he played with Tagovailoa last season. He averaged 6.6 targets, 6.1 receptions, 48.2 receiving yards and 22.6 fantasy points per game during those 11 outings, scoring 11 TDs along the way. In five full games without Tagovailoa, Achane totaled a 10-63-0 receiving line on 13 targets and averaged 9.8 fantasy PPG (one total TD). He may be Tua-dependent, but Achane is an electric playmaker and will remain a focal point in a good offense. It's reasonable to expect Ekeler-level production (perhaps with fewer TDs) moving forward.

27. Three of Kevin O'Connell's past four offenses have scored at least 80% of their TDs through the air (that includes 2023 and 2024). All four offenses were very pass-heavy. This is good news for the team's strong group of pass catchers (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson), but a bit concerning for the team's tailbacks (Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason).

28. Mike Vrabel (head coach) and Josh McDaniels (offensive coordinator/playcaller) are back in New England. McDaniels' offenses have been volatile in terms of pass/rush ratio, but all six Titans offenses were run-heavy during Vrabel's head coaching tenure. New England's 2025 scheme figures to depend a bit on how well Drake Maye progresses, but Vrabel's history suggests the second-year QB's ceiling (at least in terms of passing numbers) could be a bit limited.

29. It was a troubling 2024 season for Chris Olave, but it wasn't all bad. Olave played the bulk of the snaps in six games (five with Derek Carr). There were a pair of duds (2-11-0 and 2-10-0), but the other four games were terrific (4-81-0, 6-86-1, 8-87-0, 8-107-0). Olave handled a 24% target share in the six games, which wasn't far off his 27% and 25% rates during his first two seasons. A rebound season is a good bet.

30. Speaking of Saints WRs, Rashid Shaheed was arguably the team's No. 1 in 2024. In five full games together, Olave produced 28 targets and 277 air yards, compared to 34 targets and 580 air yards for Shaheed. In his six full games, Shaheed handled a hefty 24% target share and reached 15 fantasy points four times.

31. Tyrone Tracy Jr. took over as the Giants' de facto lead back in Week 5 last season. He went on to play 11 "full" games with Devin Singletary also active. During the span, Tracy played 67% of the snaps, handled 60% of the designed runs and 11% of the targets. Singletary managed a 27% snap share, getting 24% of the carries and 4% of the targets. Tracy averaged 12.2 fantasy PPG, which ranked 23rd among RBs. Assuming the Giants get competent QB play from Russell Wilson, Tracy will be in the RB2 mix in his second season.

32. Giants TE Theo Johnson missed the end of 2024 due to injury, but he was picking up steam prior to going down. After totaling a 14-150-0 receiving line on 20 targets (7% share) during his first eight games, Johnson leapt to a 15-181-1 line on 23 targets (19%) in the final four games of his rookie campaign. The fantasy output wasn't great in the Giants' poor offense, but the increase in reliance on Johnson (which came partially at Wan'Dale Robinson's expense, by the way) is notable as we evaluate the fourth-round pick's Year 2 stock. If there's one reservation here, Brian Daboll generally hasn't leaned much on tight ends (15% target share during 2018-24, with the only season over 19% with Darren Waller on the team in 2023).

33. Garrett Wilson averaged 10.8 targets per game (29% share) in six games prior to Davante Adams' arrival last season. In 11 games with Adams, Wilson averaged 7.9 targets per game (23%). Considering he handled a 25% share as a rookie and 30% in 2023, it's fair to say that the pre-Adams usage figures to be more indicative of what we'll see in 2025. And that will be super-important with dual-threat QB Justin Fields under center. Fields was able to support DJ Moore (30% target share, or 8.2 per game) as a strong fantasy starter in 2023 (19.0 PPG), but Moore is the only WR who has averaged double-digit fantasy points with Fields under center. That includes George Pickens, who scored zero TDs and averaged 58.8 yards and 9.9 fantasy PPG with Fields, compared to three TDs, 67.6 YPG and 13.1 PPG with Russell Wilson. Garrett Wilson will need a lot to go right in order to produce at a WR1 level.

34. Including the playoffs, Saquon Barkley had an astounding 482 touches last season. That's the most a running back has handled since DeMarco Murray had 497 in 2014. Since 2011, there have now been 15 instances of a back reaching 400 touches (again, including the playoffs). Excluding Le'Veon Bell (who infamously skipped the 2018 season), our sample of 13 RBs went on to average 12.3 games (four played every game) and 18.3 fantasy PPG. Ten of the 13 saw a dip in fantasy PPG and only five repeated as top-5 fantasy scorers. Perhaps most concerning is age. Of the five who repeated as top-5 scorers, four were 25 years old or younger (Ezekiel Elliott 24, Ray Rice 25, Derrick Henry 26, Bell 25). The exception is Marshawn Lynch (28), which is the age Barkley will be next season, though Lynch barely hit the 400-touch threshold (403), getting 79 fewer than Barkley. Barkley's historically high usage, "advanced" age and limited receiving work are reasons to think he could take a step back in 2025, but he should be able to provide RB1-level production on a per-game basis.

35. Here is where the Steelers have ranked in offensive touchdowns over the past four seasons (the first, 2021, was Ben Roethlisberger's final season): 26th, 29th, 28th and 23rd. It obviously hasn't been a good run and, especially with run-heavy Arthur Smith calling plays, it raises concerns about the potential for consistent fantasy output for the likes of DK Metcalf and George Pickens.

36. Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet played 11 games together last season. In those weeks, Walker handled 153 carries (68%) and 53 targets (14%), compared to 44 carries (19%) and 30 targets (8%) for Charbonnet. Charbonnet averaged 18.3 touches and 19.2 fantasy points per game the six weeks Walker was sidelined, but only 6.1 touches (10 max) and 6.5 fantasy points (12.1 max) per game the 11 weeks Walker played. That's compared to 18.1 touches (12 min) and 16.5 fantasy points (13-plus nine times) per game for Walker. Perhaps new OC Klint Kubiak will shake things up a bit, but it seems evident who the lead back is in Seattle.

37. Cade Otton made a leap in 2024, but don't overlook his splits. During Weeks 1-6 with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin healthy, Otton handled a solid 17% target share (5.2 per game) but was limited to a 16-163-1 receiving line (6.5 fantasy PPG and no games over 11.2). Both Godwin and Evans got hurt in Week 7, with Godwin missing the rest of the season and Evans out through Week 10. During Weeks 7-10, Otton handled a 25% target share (9.5 per game, 8-plus in all four) and posted a 30-293-3 receiving line (19.3 PPG with 18-plus three times). Otton appeared in four more games after Evans' return and handled a 14% target share (4.3 per game). He posted a 10-144-0 line and averaged 6.1 fantasy PPG (no games over 10.0). With Evans and Godwin back, Jalen McMillan on the rise and Tampa's heavy reliance on its RBs, Otton figures to head back to TE2 production.

38. That's the case for Otton despite playing in a Tampa Bay offense sure to score a lot through the air. Since Todd Bowles took over as head coach in 2022, the Bucs have scored a league-high 76.6% of their offensive TDs through the air. That's well above the 61% league average and all three teams finished top 5: 84% in 2022 (Tom Brady's final season), 78% in 2023 and 72% in 2024. Add in undersized lead back Bucky Irving and there's a strong chance Baker Mayfield will be throwing a ton near the goal line again this season. That's good news for Godwin, Evans, McMillan and, despite what I said earlier and stand by, Otton.

39. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears played 11 games together last season. In those weeks, Pollard held a sizable edge in snaps (381 to 255) and carries (150 to 64), as well as a slight-to-moderate edge in carries inside the 5-yard line (5 to 4), routes (161 to 126) and targets (38 to 32). Put another way, Pollard handled 62% of the designed runs and 12% of the targets, compared to 27% and 10%, respectively, for Spears. Despite Pollard holding a 180-to-91 touch edge, he scored fewer TDs (4 to 5) and barely outscored Spears from a fantasy standpoint (11.9 to 9.1 PPG). In fact, Pollard's lone game reaching 19 fantasy points came with Spears out in Week 12. It's clear Tennessee leaned Pollard in rushing situations and Spears was near-equally involved in passing situations, but unless this offense improves, Pollard's ceiling will be limited.